It is like that stabby lady in the bath tub in that movie. Here, I’ll give you a more readable version of the graphic from NOAA: The chance of an the Pacific ENSO system being neutral, meaning, not adding extra heat to the atmosphere and not removing extra heat form the atmosphere, is about 50%…
source http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/02/07/el-nino-season-two/
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